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CONFLICT PREVENTION

Home Conflict Prevention (Early warning)
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The Programme has established a fully functional early warning system called the COMESA Conflict Early Warning System (COMWARN) which utilises the Structural Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology. The methodology is designed to identify latent conflicts by focusing on structural factors of conflicts and is therefore an ideal tool for preventing conflicts at the very early stages of development or escalation. The SVA methodology used by COMWARN uses a composite index called the COMESA Peace and Prosperity Index (CPPI) and related explanatory variables covering economy, education, environment, governance, health, military, security and social sectors to produce forecasted explanatory structural drivers. The forecasted structural drivers which are prioritised in order of importance in explaining the CPPI, provide valuable inputs to SVA reports that are shared with Member States for action.

The development and implementation of COMWARN has been achieved through collaboration with various key stakeholders. These include Government officials at various levels, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), Private Sector Organisations (PSOs), think tanks, regional experts, the African Union (AU), Regional Economic Communities (RECs)/ Regional Mechanisms (RMs), among others.  These stakeholders have been pivotal in the various review sessions on baseline assessments, SVA methodology, draft indicators, data sources and validation of the SVA reports, among others. On response, CSOs have continued to occupy the epicentre especially addressing some of the vulnerabilities and enhancing resilience drivers identified in the COMWARN SVA forecasts.

Apart from SVA reports, situational analysis reports including jointly with the AU and RECs/RMs, weekly reports, peace and security status reports, briefs are also produced as part of early warning.

To further strengthen conflict prevention efforts, a COMESA Committee of Elders (CCOE), constituting nine eminent members (Elders) and established by the COMESA Authority in 2008, is in place and fully functional. As part of their work, the Elders are deployed by the COMESA Secretary General to various missions in COMESA Member States, including for preventive diplomacy initiatives as and when is necessary. In these missions, CSOs constitute the larger part of selected key stakeholders that the Elders consult in their work.

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