Early Warning

The Governance, Peace and Security (GPS) Unit has established a fully functional robust early warning system called the COMESA Conflict Early Warning System COMWARN) which utilises the Structural Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology. The methodology is designed to identify latent conflicts by focusing on structural factors of conflicts and is therefore an ideal tool for preventing conflicts at the very early stages of development or escalation. The SVA methodology applied by COMWARN uses a composite index called the COMESA Peace and Prosperity Index (CPPI) and related 144 explanatory variables. These cover economy, education, environment, governance, health, military, security, and social sectors to produce forecasted explanatory structural drivers. The forecasted structural drivers which are prioritised in order of importance in explaining the CPPI, provide valuable inputs to SVA reports that are shared with Member States for action. GPS has also provided the AU Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) a platform to disseminate the voluntary Country Structural Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment (CSVRA) and Country Structural Vulnerability and Mitigation Strategy (CSVMS), which have enhanced synergies with the COMWARN SVA process.

The development and implementation of COMWARN have been achieved through collaboration with various key stakeholders. These include Government officials at various levels, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), Private Sector Organisations (PSOs), think tanks, regional experts, the African Union (AU), Regional Economic Communities (RECs)/ Regional Mechanisms (RMs), among others.  These stakeholders have been pivotal in the various review sessions including on baseline assessments, SVA methodology, draft indicators, data sources and validation of the SVA reports, among others. On response, CSOs have continued to occupy the epicentre especially addressing some of the vulnerabilities and enhancing resilience drivers identified in the COMWARN SVA forecasts.

Apart from SVA reports, situational analysis reports, including jointly with the AU and RECs/RMs, weekly reports, peace and security status reports, and briefs are also produced as part of early warning.